Let’s play a game. It’s called reverse bingo. Everybody knows the Raiders can strike it rich by selecting one of the NFL Draft’s top three receivers during the first round on Thursday night. But …
What if we consider the full possibilities of what many general managers and scouts have called the deepest wide receiver draft ever. There might be as many as 30 receivers with a first-, second- or third-round grade on teams’ draft boards, and Raiders GM Mike Mayock was bold enough last week to say “there could be” a No. 1 receiver, not merely a starter, available in the third round.
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The Raiders definitely need a marquee game-changer after their wide receivers finished 28th in the league in average receptions (8.8) and 29th in receiving yards (114) per game last season.
So let’s go backward and look at my list of the top 25 receivers, gleaned from watching game tape but mostly talking to team officials and scouts and a couple of prospects themselves since the NFL Scouting Combine in February.I labeled three of them sleepers,since youguys love thatterm so much.
Maybe the Raiders can win this drafting game before we even get to the top three guys. The Raiders could — should? — pick up two of these receivers.
Third-round grades
25. Quez Watkins, Southern Mississippi, 6-foot, 185 pounds, 4.35 40-yard dash time
Watkins improved a lot last season, as he was able to get vertical and make some leaping catches deep. He needs to get tougher and stronger; he was eaten up by some cornerbacks. But there is an underlying explosiveness and growth that is very interesting.
24. Isaiah Coulter, Rhode Island, 6-2, 198 pounds, 4.45
Sleeper No. 1. Coulter is a big guy who can run. Need I say any more? He didn’t look overmatched against tougher competition, catching nine passes for 152 yards against Virginia Tech last season. Coulter is raw but has very good feet and quick hands to go with that speed.
23. Tyler Johnson, Minnesota, 6-1, 206 pounds, N/A
Remember Danny Fortson? Big-time college basketball star who was too short to do damage in the paint in the NBA. That is who Johnson reminds me of. He was a beast and had some huge games for the Gophers but isn’t fast enough or elusive enough or savvy enough in his route running to project to more than a reserve player.
22. Gabriel Davis, Central Florida, 6-2, 216 pounds, 4.54
Davis had 72 catches last year, but his slower-than-ideal release may hold him back at first on the next level. The big target is strong and uses his hands well, not only to catch the ball but create separation.
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21. John Hightower, Boise State, 6-1, 189 pounds, 4.43
The raw prospect can scoot and could have an immediate impact on end arounds and kick returns. Hightower is a long-strider who might get pushed off his routes at the beginning, but there is enough there with his speed and tracking ability to get coaches excited.
20. Antonio Gibson, Memphis, 6-0, 228 pounds, 4.39
Sleeper No. 2. Gibson had 38 receptions for 735 yards and eight touchdowns and also carried the ball 33 times for 369 yards and four touchdowns last season. The playmaker has tons of upside and could be an explosive slot player with bonuses before long. Defensive backs bounced off of him in college and he thinks it will be the same in the NFL. I am not betting against him.
19. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan, 6-2, 212 pounds, 4.48.
Peoples-Jones is one of those five-star high school recruits who get lost on the college level. He has an NFL body and tracks the ball pretty well. He was always hurt and didn’t have the short-area quickness or route-running polish to get open often enough when he was on the field. Plus, he had some really bad quarterbacks. But he’s an interesting piece of clay to work with.
18. Lynn Bowden, Kentucky, 5-11, 204 pounds, N/A
Bowden went 6-2 as the Wildcats’ starting quarterback last season, had three 200-yard rushing games and caught 30 passes for 348 yards. He is going to need some time to develop but could make an impact in the slot or on gadget plays soon enough.
17. K.J. Hill, Ohio State, 6-0, 196 pounds, 4.60
Hill stood out at the Senior Bowl, easily creating separation and catching everything thrown at him. He is going to be a slot receiver in the NFL, like he was at Ohio State, and he doesn’t have the measurables to get anyone too excited. But he is a true student of the game and looks like the kind of guy who will be making tough grabs as a role player for the next 10 years.
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16. Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty, 6-4, 222 pounds, 4.60
Sleeper No. 3. Gandy-Golden is a high-ball specialist who had two 200-yard receiving games last season. He looks the part, with fluid movements and good hands and the ability to make the first defender miss after the catch. The former competitive gymnast can do a full flip while catching a ball but is not that explosive, the route running needs polish and he is making a big leap in competition level. But he has been working with Hall of Fame receiver Cris Carter this offseason and has made a lot more plays than many on this list.
15. Devin Duvernay, Texas, 5-10, 200 pounds, 4.39
The speedster caught 106 passes last season, but I don’t love the hands. Are we sure he is not a third-down running back?
14. Van Jefferson, Florida, 6-1, 200 pounds, 4.55
The son of a receivers coach, the crafty Jefferson sets up defensive backs beautifully with his route running and smarts. He has to, because he is not an elite athlete, and that was before foot surgery for an injury that was discovered at the combine. Jefferson should be a good No. 3 or 4 receiver in the NFL. If he is the first receiver selected by the Raiders, something went really wrong.
Three rolls of the dice
13. Chase Claypool, Notre Dame, 6-4, 238 pounds, 4.42
Claypool runs very well for his size and projects well on slants and fades in the end zone. He attacks the football, but the route running is a little rough and he needs to get stronger and looser in the lower body. Claypool had ankle and shoulder surgeries in college. Are we sure that he’s not a tight end someday?
12. K.J. Hamler, Penn State, 5-9, 178 pounds, N/A
Hamler didn’t run the 40 at the combine after tweaking his hamstring, but said he planned to run a 4.27 at his pro day, which didn’t happen because of the pandemic. Everyone knows he is fast and some NFL team — likely not the Raiders — will plug him in at the slot right away. He is obviously very small and had a lot of drops last season.
11. Bryan Edwards, South Carolina, 6-2, 212 pounds, N/A
Edwards missed the final two games of last season due to a knee injury and then broke his foot in February while training for the combine, so he may slip a little bit. His size and route-running ability have led to a popular comp to the Broncos’ Courtland Sutton, but Edwards may have more twitchiness than that. He uses his big body well but had a small issue with drops in college.
The second tier
10. Laviska Shenault, Colorado, 6-1, 227 pounds, 4.58
Boom or bust? A big-time playmaker who has had a lot of injuries (foot and shoulder surgeries before a core muscle procedure in March) and needs a lot of coaching on his route running. Shenault runs like a running back and has good hands. At Colorado, he lined out wide, in the slot, in the backfield as a running back and wildcat QB and as a tight end.
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9. Tee Higgins, Clemson, 6-4, 215 pounds, 4.58
The Raiders love Clemson guys and Higgins might have the best hands in the draft. But I am not as high on him as others. He is very long and athletic but not quick, which may be an issue getting off of press coverage on the next level. Higgins knows how to box out defenders but lacks short-area quickness — his 1.66-second 10-yard split fell in the bottom-fifth percentile measured against combine times since 1999.
8. Michael Pittman Jr., USC, 6-4, 223 pounds, 4.52
A Gruden Grinder. His dad, Michael, was a very tough, physical running back for Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay and you can see that in his son — who wanted to be a running back but simply outgrew the position. Pittman doesn’t have the extra gear but has very good hands and knows how to get open. I really like Yahoo Sports’ Matt Harmon’s comp of the Bears’ Allen Robinson, as Pittman also does a really nice job of playing the ball in the air on deep throws. He also blocked three punts at USC.
7. Jalen Reagor, TCU, 5-11, 206 pounds, 4.46
Reagor is a very tough, very fast player who was saddled with some bad coaching and quarterback play in college. They never lined him up inside to take advantage of his speed. One of the knocks on Reagor is that he had bad body language at times — I might have taken my pads off on the field and walked away after some of those throws. He’s a big weight-room guy and has great lower-body strength that he uses to break tackles. If you don’t get Henry Ruggs, then Reagor is a nice consolation prize that you can plug in on jet sweeps and drag routes, and he had two punt-return TDs in 2019.
Sure-fire first-rounders
6. Denzel Mims, Baylor, 6-3, 207 pounds, 4.38
Mims is the classic offseason riser, a player who wouldn’t be sniffing the first round if we just went off of game film. But he had a great Senior Bowl week and then ran like the wind and jumped over buildings at the combine. Mims didn’t have a big or even medium route tree at Baylor, and sometimes rounds off his routes and lets the ball come into his chest. But he will make the pretty catch and is said to be a hard worker, so a team will jump at the chance to draft him.
5. Justin Jefferson, LSU, 6-1, 202, pounds, 4.47
Jefferson is going to go in the first 25 picks. I am not as high on him as most, largely because I think he ends up being just a slot receiver. He is very polished but was the No. 2 receiver on his college team — which I think gets overlooked this time of year. Is he going to be able to separate outside against elite corners? Is he a game-changer? I don’t know.
4. Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State, 6-foot, 205 pounds, 4.53
Aiyuk plays faster than he timed and he has an 81-inch wingspan, which is normally the equivalent of someone who is 6-9. He can also return kicks. Aiyuk didn’t have a good quarterback or offensive line in college, so the stats he put up are a credit to his explosiveness and route running. He averaged 11.1 yards after the catch in 2019. He did have core muscle surgery earlier this month but is expected to be ready whenever football starts again.
3. Henry Ruggs, Alabama, 5-11, 188 pounds, 4.24
Ruggs is so fast that he can line up anywhere and score, which is the biggest reason you could say he should go first in this group. He averaged 30 yards on his 25 career touchdowns in college. He has very good hands, can stop and go, is a better route runner than advertised and coaches at Alabama rave about his toughness and hustle.
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2. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, 6-2, 198 pounds, 4.48
Lamb has an impressive highlight reel that shows off his great hands, high-point catch ability and a nose for the end zone. My one small concern with all the yards after catches is that people have apparently forgotten how bad Big 12 defenses were. But he has gotten better every year and is extremely competitive, so I can only knock him down one spot.
1. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, 6-1, 193 pounds, 4.44
Jeudy already has a Ph.D. in route running, but I think people sleep on his explosiveness a little bit. I have written a lot about Jeudy already and I think he is just as dangerous after the catch as Lamb is. People thankfully don’t cite Wonderlic scores like they used to, but the test is still given and used as a resource by teams and Jeudy had a historically low score. He reportedly did do well in interviews, though, and the consensus has him securely as one of the two top receivers in this class.
The Raiders probably can’t go wrong with any of the top three, but they can definitely go right with some of the other choices at receiver this week.
(Photo of Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk: Adam Ruff / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
