Latest track, spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Idalia (2024)

HAPPY MONDAY. LET’S GET YOU CAUGHT UP ON THE LATEST WITH TROPICAL STORM IDALIA EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH VERY WARM WATER. SO IT’S A PRETTY STRONG TROPICAL STORM RIGHT NOW. IT’S JUST NINE MILES AWAY FROM BEING A HURRICANE. IT WILL BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AND THE LATEST PROJECTION IS A MAJOR HURRICANE. NOW A CATEGORY THREE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, POSSIBLY NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AND THEN THE REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY PUSH BACK OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, KIND OF SIDESWIPING OUR COAST, BRINGING 2 TO 4IN OF RAINFALL, ALL VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN, ALONG THE COAST. AND THEN AS YOU TAKE A LOOK LOCALLY, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND NOT NEARLY THAT AMOUNT. IN FACT, EVERY SINGLE MODEL RUN BRINGING IT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. SO THE IMPACTS FOR US ARE DECREASING, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE IMPACTS WITH THE CURRENT TRACK. WE’LL GO OVER THAT HERE IN A SECOND. WE’VE ALSO GOT HURRICANE FRANKLIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES, THANKFULLY. SO ALL EYES AND ATTENTION RIGHT NOW ON IDALIA. AGAIN MAKING LANDFALL WEDNESDAY, QUICKLY MOVING AND REALLY IMPACTING, I THINK GEORGIA’S COAST AND SOUTH CAROLINA’S COAST THE MOST. THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO, YOU’RE STILL GOING TO GET WIND AND RAIN. BUT THE HEAVIEST POCKETS OF RAIN SHOULD BE HILTON HEAD, CHARLESTON AND POSSIBLY INTO MYRTLE BEACH. WE’RE GOING TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE SIDE OF THAT. SO, YES, WE ARE GOING TO SEE SOME STRAY SHOWERS OUT OF THIS AND POTENTIALLY SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. NOT EVERYONE GETS WET NOW. THIS IS FOR WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS. NOT EVERYONE GETS WET. AND SOME OF THOSE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30MPH, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO WE’LL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AND ANY TWEAKS AND UPDATES THAT ARE NEEDED AND THEY WILL BE NEEDED. WE’LL KEEP THEM UPDATED. BUT 20 TO 30 MILE AN HOUR GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL. SO A LITTLE BREEZY EVEN WHEN WE WAKE UP THURSDAY. LET’S TAKE A LOOK OUTSIDE LIVE SUPER DOPPLER FOUR RADAR. IT’S NOT GOING TO BE AS HOT TODAY. LOOK AT ALL THE CLOUDS. IT’S GOING TO BE HIDING THAT SUNSHINE FROM US. IT’S NOT GOING TO BE SWELTERING HEAT. SO WE’RE GOING TO TOP OUT THE 70S FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE 80S FOR PARTS OF THE UPSTATE. WE’RE GETTING A GOOD SOAKING RIGHT NOW IN HARTWELL, ELBERTON, ABBEVILLE, YOU ARE GETTING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND AS THIS DOES MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG, THAT PARTICULAR SWATH OF RAIN, IT’S GOING TO BE DYING OUT. SO NOT NEARLY AS MUCH, BUT YOU COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THOSE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. THEN HERE COMES THE AFTERNOON AROUND LUNCHTIME OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ATMOSPHERE GETS REINVIGORATED. WE GET BACK TO THOSE ISOLATED DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCING THING HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SO, AGAIN, NOT EVERYBODY GETS WET AT ONCE. IT’S NOT GOING TO BE A WASHOUT. THERE’S GOING TO BE SOME DRY TIME AND SOME LULLS. BUT SOME OF THIS RAIN IS GOING TO BE VERY HEAVY. WE DO IT AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH. SO ALL OF THIS RAIN IS DUE TO A STALLED FRONT. THAT FRONT FINALLY GETS MOBILE AND GETS OUT OF HERE. AND THEN HERE’S WEDNESDAY. YEAH, WE’RE GOING TO GET SOME OF THOSE OUTER BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THAT SYSTEM. THIS IS GOING TO BE SOME STRAY SHOWERS, SOME SCATTERED DOWNPOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING, A FEW MORE STRAY SHOWERS FOR SOME OF US WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AND THEN IT SEEMS TO PULL EAST HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL TODAY? I THINK A GOOD AVERAGE IS A QUARTER INCH TO HALF AN INCH. THERE MIGHT BE POCKETS WHERE A FEW OF US GET SOME HEAVIER ROUNDS OF RAIN. YOU MAY GET AN INCH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN, I THINK FOR MOST OF US IT’LL BE LESS THAN THAT. WE WILL ADD TO IT TOMORROW. WE’LL ADD TO IT A LITTLE BIT MORE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING A WHOLE LOT BETTER. LET’S TAKE A LOOK. TEMPERATURE WISE, MID 80S TODAY, SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THAT’S DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. THEN THE COLD FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH. WE SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, A LOT LESS HUMID. THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY, HEADING INTO SUNDAY. AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH OF COURSE IS LABOR DAY, WE WILL START TO WARM BACK UP. BUT WE’VE GOT LOTS OF NEEDED RAIN AHEAD OF THAT AND THEN WANTED LESS HUMID BEHIND THAT.